Skip to main content

Revealing Measles Outbreak Risk With a Nested Immunoglobulin G Serosurvey in Madagascar

Author(s): Winter, Amy K.; Wesolowski, Amy P.; Mensah, Keitly J.; Ramamonjiharisoa, Miora Bruna; Randriamanantena, Andrianmasina Herivelo; et al

To refer to this page use:
Abstract: Madagascar reports few measles cases annually and high vaccination campaign coverage. However, the underlying age profile of immunity and risk of a measles outbreak is unknown. We conducted a nested serological survey, testing 1,005 serum samples (collected between November 2013 and December 2015 via Madagascar’s febrile rash surveillance system) for measles immunoglobulin G antibody titers. We directly estimated the age profile of immunity and compared these estimates with indirect estimates based on a birth cohort model of vaccination coverage and natural infection. Combining these estimates of the age profile of immunity in the population with an age-structured model of transmission, we further predicted the risk of a measles outbreak and the impact of mitigation strategies designed around supplementary immunization activities. The direct and indirect estimates of age-specific seroprevalence show that current measles susceptibility is over 10%, and modeling suggests that Madagascar may be at risk of a major measles epidemic.
Publication Date: 6-Jun-2018
Electronic Publication Date: 6-Jun-2018
Citation: Winter, Amy K, Wesolowski, Amy P, Mensah, Keitly J, Ramamonjiharisoa, Miora Bruna, Randriamanantena, Andrianmasina Herivelo, Razafindratsimandresy, Richter, Cauchemez, Simon, Lessler, Justin, Ferrari, Matt J, Metcalf, C Jess E, Héraud, Jean-Michel. (2018). Revealing Measles Outbreak Risk With a Nested Immunoglobulin G Serosurvey in Madagascar. American Journal of Epidemiology, 10.1093/aje/kwy114
DOI: doi:10.1093/aje/kwy114
ISSN: 0002-9262
EISSN: 1476-6256
Pages: 1 - 8
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: American Journal of Epidemiology
Version: Final published version. This is an open access article.

Items in OAR@Princeton are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.