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Interacting effects of land use and climate on rodent-borne pathogens in central Kenya

Author(s): Young, Hillary S.; McCauley, Douglas J.; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Nunn, Charles L.; Campana, Michael G.; et al

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Abstract: Understanding the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on zoonotic disease risk is both a critical conservation objective and a public health priority. Here, we evaluate the effects of multiple forms of anthropogenic disturbance across a precipitation gradient on the abundance of pathogen-infected small mammal hosts in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system in central Kenya. Our results suggest that conversion to cropland and wildlife loss alone drive systematic increases in rodent-borne pathogen prevalence, but that pastoral conversion has no such systematic effects. The effects are most likely explained both by changes in total small mammal abundance, and by changes in relative abundance of a few high-competence species, although changes in vector assemblages may also be involved. Several pathogens responded to interactions between disturbance type and climatic conditions, suggesting the potential for synergistic effects of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change on the distribution of disease risk. Overall, these results indicate that conservation can be an effective tool for reducing abundance of rodent-borne pathogens in some contexts (e.g. wildlife loss alone); however, given the strong variation in effects across disturbance types, pathogen taxa and environmental conditions, the use of conservation as public health interventions will need to be carefully tailored to specific pathogens and human contexts. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications’.
Publication Date: 5-Jun-2017
Electronic Publication Date: 24-Apr-2017
Citation: Young, Hillary S, McCauley, Douglas J, Dirzo, Rodolfo, Nunn, Charles L, Campana, Michael G, Agwanda, Bernard, Otarola-Castillo, Erik R, Castillo, Eric R, Pringle, Robert M, Veblen, Kari E, Salkeld, Daniel J, Stewardson, Kristin, Fleischer, Robert, Lambin, Eric F, Palmer, Todd M, Helgen, Kristofer M. (2017). Interacting effects of land use and climate on rodent-borne pathogens in central Kenya. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 372 (1722), 20160116 - 20160116. doi:10.1098/rstb.2016.0116
DOI: doi:10.1098/rstb.2016.0116
ISSN: 0962-8436
EISSN: 1471-2970
Pages: 20160116 - 20160116
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Version: Final published version. This is an open access article.

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