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Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

Author(s): Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

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Abstract: In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes.
Publication Date: Dec-2016
Electronic Publication Date: 5-Oct-2016
Citation: Bharti, Nita, Djibo, Ali, Tatem, Andrew J., Grenfell, Bryan T., Ferrari, Matthew J. (2016). Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage. Scientific Reports, 6 (1), 10.1038/srep34541
DOI: doi:10.1038/srep34541
EISSN: 2045-2322
Pages: 1 - 10
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Scientific Reports
Version: Final published version. This is an open access article.

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