Chapter 20: Modeling canine rabies virus transmission dynamics

Abstract

Mathematical models of infectious disease are used to develop an understanding of disease dynamics and aid in designing control strategies. Modeling can also shed light on how dynamics, and therefore intervention strategies, may change as control is implemented. In light of the mounting evidence that elimination of canine rabies is a realistic objective, the WHO has set a global target of zero human deaths due to dog-mediated rabies by 2030. In this chapter, we focus on how dynamic epidemiological modeling can guide efforts to achieve this goal. We review existing modeling work and identify insights generated, outstanding questions, and gaps in our knowledge. We further discuss the role that modeling can play in the future to inform elimination. The Fourth Edition updates this classic reference with comprehensive coverage of the molecular virology, pathogenesis, vaccines, public health, immunology, and epidemiology of rabies.