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The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza

Author(s): Bansal, Shweta; Pourbohloul, Babak; Hupert, Nathaniel; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

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dc.contributor.authorBansal, Shweta-
dc.contributor.authorPourbohloul, Babak-
dc.contributor.authorHupert, Nathaniel-
dc.contributor.authorGrenfell, Bryan T.-
dc.contributor.authorMeyers, Lauren Ancel-
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-19T18:35:41Z-
dc.date.available2019-04-19T18:35:41Z-
dc.date.issued2010-02-26en_US
dc.identifier.citationBansal, Shweta, Pourbohloul, Babak, Hupert, Nathaniel, Grenfell, Bryan T., Meyers, Lauren Ancel. (2010). The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza. PLoS ONE, 5 (2), e9360 - e9360. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0009360en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/pr1k71n-
dc.description.abstractBackground: As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates. Methods and Findings: Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way. Conclusions: Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.en_US
dc.format.extente9360 - e9360en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS ONEen_US
dc.rightsFinal published version. This is an open access article.en_US
dc.titleThe Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenzaen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.identifier.doidoi:10.1371/journal.pone.0009360-
dc.date.eissued2010-02-26en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1932-6203-
pu.type.symplectichttp://www.symplectic.co.uk/publications/atom-terms/1.0/journal-articleen_US

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