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Quantifying the Impact of Immune Escape on Transmission Dynamics of Influenza

Author(s): Park, A.W.; Daly, J.M.; Lewis, N.S.; Smith, D.J.; Wood, J.L.N.; et al

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Abstract: Influenza virus evades prevailing natural and vaccine-induced immunity by accumulating antigenic change in the haemagglutinin surface protein. Linking amino acid substitutions in haemagglutinin epitopes to epidemiology has been problematic because of the scarcity of data connecting these scales. We use experiments on equine influenza virus to address this issue, quantifying how key parameters of viral establishment and shedding increase the probability of transmission with genetic distance between previously immunizing virus and challenge virus. Qualitatively similar patterns emerge from analyses based on antigenic distance and from a published human influenza study. Combination of the equine data and epidemiological models allows us to calculate the effective reproductive number of transmission as a function of relevant genetic change in the virus, illuminating the probability of influenza epidemics as a function of immunity.
Publication Date: 30-Oct-2009
Electronic Publication Date: 29-Oct-2009
Citation: Park, A.W., Daly, J.M., Lewis, N.S., Smith, D.J., Wood, J.L.N., Grenfell, B.T. (2009). Quantifying the Impact of Immune Escape on Transmission Dynamics of Influenza. Science, 326 (5953), 726 - 728. doi:10.1126/science.1175980
DOI: doi:10.1126/science.1175980
ISSN: 0036-8075
EISSN: 1095-9203
Pages: 726 - 728
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Science
Version: Author's manuscript

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