Minority Higher Education Pipeline: Consequences of Changes in College Admissions Policy in Texas

Abstract

This paper uses administrative data for the two most selective Texas public institutions to examine the application, admission and enrollment consequences of rescinding affirmative action and implementing the top 10% admission regime. We simulate the gains and losses associated with each policy regime and also those from assigning minorities the application, admission and enrollment rates for white students. Challenging popular claims that the top 10% law restored diversification of Texas’s public flagships, our analyses that consider both changes in the size of high school graduation cohorts and institutional carrying capacity show that the uniform admission regime did not restore Hispanic and black representation at UT and TAMU even after four years. Simulations of gains and losses at each stage of the college pipeline across admission regimes for Hispanics and blacks confirm that affirmative action is the most efficient policy to diversify college campuses, even in highly segregated states like Texas.