Skip to main content

Regional Arctic sea–ice prediction: potential versus operational seasonal forecast skill

Author(s): Bushuk, Mitchell; Msadek, Rym; Winton, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel; Yang, Xiaosong; et al

To refer to this page use:
Full metadata record
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorBushuk, Mitchell-
dc.contributor.authorMsadek, Rym-
dc.contributor.authorWinton, Michael-
dc.contributor.authorVecchi, Gabriel-
dc.contributor.authorYang, Xiaosong-
dc.contributor.authorRosati, Anthony-
dc.contributor.authorGudgel, Rich-
dc.identifier.citationBushuk, Mitchell, Rym Msadek, Michael Winton, Gabriel Vecchi, Xiaosong Yang, Anthony Rosati, and Rich Gudgel. "Regional Arctic sea–ice prediction: potential versus operational seasonal forecast skill." Climate Dynamics 52 (2019): 2721-2743. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4288-y.en_US
dc.description.abstractSeasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice on regional spatial scales are a pressing need for a broad group of stakeholders, however, most assessments of predictability and forecast skill to date have focused on pan-Arctic sea–ice extent (SIE). In this work, we present the first direct comparison of perfect model (PM) and operational (OP) seasonal prediction skill for regional Arctic SIE within a common dynamical prediction system. This assessment is based on two complementary suites of seasonal prediction ensemble experiments performed with a global coupled climate model. First, we present a suite of PM predictability experiments with start dates spanning the calendar year, which are used to quantify the potential regional SIE prediction skill of this system. Second, we assess the system’s OP prediction skill for detrended regional SIE using a suite of retrospective initialized seasonal forecasts spanning 1981–2016. In nearly all Arctic regions and for all target months, we find a substantial skill gap between PM and OP predictions of regional SIE. The PM experiments reveal that regional winter SIE is potentially predictable at lead times beyond 12 months, substantially longer than the skill of their OP counterparts. Both the OP and PM predictions display a spring prediction skill barrier for regional summer SIE forecasts, indicating a fundamental predictability limit for summer regional predictions. We find that a similar barrier exists for pan-Arctic sea–ice volume predictions, but is not present for predictions of pan-Arctic SIE. The skill gap identified in this work indicates a promising potential for future improvements in regional SIE predictions.en_US
dc.format.extent2721 - 2743en_US
dc.relation.ispartofClimate Dynamicsen_US
dc.rightsAuthor's manuscripten_US
dc.titleRegional Arctic sea–ice prediction: potential versus operational seasonal forecast skillen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Regional_Arctic_sea–ice_prediction_potential_operational_seasonal_forecast_skill.pdf922.58 kBAdobe PDFView/Download

Items in OAR@Princeton are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.