Skip to main content

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outer Size and Structure Remain Unchanged by the Late Twenty-First Century

Author(s): Schenkel, Benjamin A; Chavas, Daniel; Lin, Ning; Knutson, Thomas; Vecchi, Gabriel; et al

To refer to this page use:
Abstract: There is a lack of consensus on whether North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) outer size and structure (i.e., change in outer winds with increasing radius from the TC) will differ by the late twenty-first century. Hence, this work seeks to examine whether North Atlantic TC outer wind field size and structure will change by the late twenty-first century using multiple simulations under CMIP3 SRES A1B and CMIP5 RCP4.5 scenarios. Specifically, our analysis examines data from the GFDL High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR) and two versions of the GFDL hurricane model downscaling climate model output. Our results show that projected North Atlantic TC outer size and structure remain unchanged by the late twenty-first century within nearly all HiFLOR and GFDL hurricane model simulations. Moreover, no significant regional outer size differences exist in the North Atlantic within most HiFLOR and GFDL hurricane model simulations. No changes between the control and late-twenty-first-century simulations exist over the storm life cycle in nearly all simulations. For the simulation that shows significant decreases in TC outer size, the changes are attributed to reductions in storm lifetime and outer size growth rates. The absence of differences in outer size among most simulations is consistent with the process that controls the theoretical upper bound of storm size (i.e., Rhines scaling), which is thermodynamically invariant. However, the lack of complete consensus among simulations for many of these conclusions suggests nontrivial uncertainty in our results.
Publication Date: 15-Jan-2023
Citation: Schenkel, Benjamin A, Chavas, Daniel, Lin, Ning, Knutson, Thomas, Vecchi, Gabriel, Brammer, Alan. (2023). North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outer Size and Structure Remain Unchanged by the Late Twenty-First Century. Journal of Climate, 36 (2), 359 - 382. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0066.1
DOI: doi:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0066.1
ISSN: 0894-8755
EISSN: 1520-0442
Pages: 359 - 382
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Journal of Climate
Version: Final published version. This is an open access article.

Items in OAR@Princeton are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.