Targeting the Leadership of Terrorist and Insurgents Movements: Historical Lessons for Contemporary Policy Makers

Abstract

In a world where the struggle against terrorism and insurgent movements has become the top priority for many policy makers, there is a growing need for research that examines what happens to militant movements after the death or arrest of a leader. Do groups tend to disband, schism, or become more radical? What characteristics of a group make it more susceptible to certain changes after the loss of a leader? Using thirty-five case studies drawn from more than forty countries, this paper analyzes the effect that the death or arrest of a leader has on social, political, and religious movements. Its conclusions are drawn from an analysis of the groups’ characteristics and an assessment of the effects the loss of a leader had on the survivability and evolution of the movement. The analysis provides some guidance for policy makers focused on incapacitating leadership as part of a broader effort to combat terrorist and insurgent movements.1