Managing Uncertainty: Formulating A U.S. Grand Strategy for China

Abstract

This paper posits that in the face of uncertainty over China’s rise to power, traditional realist and liberal theories of international relations are impractical for formulating U.S. policy. Instead, this paper outlines a new way of thinking about international order and then uses a game theory model to analyze U.S.-Sino relations in light of this new framework. The model finds that a mixed strategy equilibrium exists whereby the United States pursues both competitive and cooperative policies toward China. This U.S. policy of “guarded engagement” could induce Beijing to cooperate but leaves the United States prepared for conflict if it does not.