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Beyond Weather Time-Scale Prediction for Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan in a Global Climate Model

Author(s): Xiang, Baoqiang; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Shaoqing; Vecchi, Gabriel; et al

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Abstract: While tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The “beyond weather time scale” predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model’s skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy’s U.S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan’s landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potential of using the GFDL coupled model for extended-range predictions of TCs.
Publication Date: 1-Feb-2015
Citation: Xiang, Baoqiang, Shian-Jiann Lin, Ming Zhao, Shaoqing Zhang, Gabriel Vecchi, Tim Li, Xianan Jiang, Lucas Harris, and Jan-Huey Chen. "Beyond weather time-scale prediction for Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan in a global climate model." Monthly Weather Review 143, no. 2 (2015): 524-535. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00227.1.
DOI: doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00227.1
ISSN: 0027-0644
EISSN: 1520-0493
Pages: 524 - 535
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Monthly Weather Review
Version: Final published version. Article is made available in OAR by the publisher's permission or policy.

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