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How Skillful are the Multiannual Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity?

Author(s): Caron, Louis-Philippe; Hermanson, Leon; Dobbin, Alison; Imbers, Jara; Lledó, Llorenç; et al

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Abstract: The recent emergence of near-term climate prediction, wherein climate models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of the Earth system and integrated up to 10 years into the future, has prompted the development of three different multiannual forecasting techniques of North Atlantic hurricane frequency. Descriptions of these three different approaches, as well as their respective skill, are available in the peer-reviewed literature, but because these various studies are sufficiently different in their details (e.g., period covered, metric used to compute the skill, measure of hurricane activity), it is nearly impossible to compare them. Using the latest decadal reforecasts currently available, we present a direct comparison of these three multiannual forecasting techniques with a combination of simple statistical models, with the hope of offering a perspective on the current state-of-the-art research in this field and the skill level currently reached by these forecasts. Using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches, we show that these forecast systems have a significant level of skill and can improve on simple alternatives, such as climatological and persistence forecasts.
Publication Date: 1-Feb-2018
Citation: Caron, Louis-Philippe, Leon Hermanson, Alison Dobbin, Jara Imbers, Llorenç Lledó, and Gabriel A. Vecchi. "How skillful are the multiannual forecasts of Atlantic hurricane activity?" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99, no. 2 (2018): 403-413. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0025.1.
DOI: doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0025.1
EISSN: 1520-0477
Pages: 403 - 414
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Version: Final published version. This is an open access article.

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