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Seasonal Predictability of Extratropical Storm Tracks in GFDL’s High-Resolution Climate Prediction Model

Author(s): Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A; Gudgel, Rich G; Delworth, Thomas L; Zhang, Shaoqing; et al

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Abstract: The seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL)’s high-resolution climate model has been investigated using an average predictability time analysis. The leading predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are the ENSO-related spatial patterns for both boreal winter and summer, and the second predictable components are mostly due to changes in external radiative forcing and multidecadal oceanic variability. These two predictable components for both seasons show significant correlation skill for all leads from 0 to 9 months, while the skill of predicting the boreal winter storm track is consistently higher than that of the austral winter. The predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are dynamically consistent with the predictable components of the upper troposphere jet flow for both seasons. Over the region with strong storm-track signals in North America, the model is able to predict the changes in statistics of extremes connected to storm-track changes (e.g., extreme low and high sea level pressure and extreme 2-m air temperature) in response to different ENSO phases. These results point toward the possibility of providing skillful seasonal predictions of the statistics of extratropical extremes over land using high-resolution coupled models.
Publication Date: 1-May-2015
Citation: Yang, Xiaosong, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Rich G. Gudgel, Thomas L. Delworth, Shaoqing Zhang, Anthony Rosati, Liwei Jia et al. "Seasonal Predictability of Extratropical Storm Tracks in GFDL’s High-Resolution Climate Prediction Model." Journal of Climate 28, no. 9 (2015): 3592-3611. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00517.1.
DOI: doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00517.1
ISSN: 0894-8755
EISSN: 1520-0442
Pages: 3592 - 3611
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Journal of Climate
Version: Final published version. Article is made available in OAR by the publisher's permission or policy.

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