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Dominant Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Recent Decadal Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Author(s): Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Villarini, Gabriele; Delworth, Thomas L; et al

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Abstract: Over the 1997–2014 period, the mean frequency of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) was markedly lower (~18%) than the period 1980–1996. Here we show that these changes were driven by an intensification of the vertical wind shear in the southeastern/eastern WNP tied to the changes in the Walker circulation, which arose primarily in response to the enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the North Atlantic, while the SST anomalies associated with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the tropical Pacific and the anthropogenic forcing play only secondary roles. These results are based on observations and experiments using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast‐oriented Low‐ocean Resolution Coupled Climate Model coupled climate model. The present study suggests a crucial role of the North Atlantic SST in causing decadal changes to WNP TC frequency.
Publication Date: 16-Jan-2018
Citation: Zhang, Wei, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriele Villarini, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, and Liwei Jia. "Dominant role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the recent decadal changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity." Geophysical Research Letters 45, no. 1 (2018): 354-362. doi:10.1002/2017GL076397.
DOI: doi:10.1002/2017GL076397
ISSN: 0094-8276
EISSN: 1944-8007
Pages: 354 - 362
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Version: Final published version. Article is made available in OAR by the publisher's permission or policy.

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