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Projected Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Length of the Tropical Cyclone Season

Author(s): Dwyer, John G; Camargo, Suzana J; Sobel, Adam H; Biasutti, Michela; Emanuel, Kerry A; et al

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Abstract: This study investigates projected changes in the length of the tropical cyclone season due to greenhouse gas increases. Two sets of simulations are analyzed, both of which capture the relevant features of the observed annual cycle of tropical cyclones in the recent historical record. Both sets use output from the general circulation models (GCMs) of either phase 3 or phase 5 of the CMIP suite (CMIP3 and CMIP5, respectively). In one set, downscaling is performed by randomly seeding incipient vortices into the large-scale atmospheric conditions simulated by each GCM and simulating the vortices’ evolution in an axisymmetric dynamical tropical cyclone model; in the other set, the GCMs’ sea surface temperature (SST) is used as the boundary condition for a high-resolution global atmospheric model (HiRAM). The downscaling model projects a longer season (in the late twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century) in most basins when using CMIP5 data but a slightly shorter season using CMIP3. HiRAM with either CMIP3 or CMIP5 SST anomalies projects a shorter tropical cyclone season in most basins. Season length is measured by the number of consecutive days that the mean cyclone count is greater than a fixed threshold, but other metrics give consistent results. The projected season length changes are also consistent with the large-scale changes, as measured by a genesis index of tropical cyclones. The season length changes are mostly explained by an idealized year-round multiplicative change in tropical cyclone frequency, but additional changes in the transition months also contribute.
Publication Date: 1-Aug-2015
Citation: Dwyer, John G., Suzana J. Camargo, Adam H. Sobel, Michela Biasutti, Kerry A. Emanuel, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Ming Zhao, and Michael K. Tippett. "Projected twenty-first-century changes in the length of the tropical cyclone season." Journal of Climate 28, no. 15 (2015): 6181-6192. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00686.1.
DOI: doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00686.1
ISSN: 0894-8755
EISSN: 1520-0442
Pages: 6181 - 6192
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Journal of Climate
Version: Final published version. Article is made available in OAR by the publisher's permission or policy.

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