Skip to main content

Potential Increase in Hazard From Mediterranean Hurricane Activity With Global Warming

Author(s): González-Alemán, Juan J; Pascale, Salvatore; Gutierrez-Fernandez, Jesús; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Gaertner, Miguel A; et al

To refer to this page use:
Abstract: Mediterranean hurricanes (Medicanes) are intense cyclones that acquire tropical characteristics, associated with extreme winds and rainfall, thus posing a serious natural hazard to populated areas along Mediterranean coasts. Understanding how Medicanes will change with global warming remains, however, a challenge, because coarse resolution and/or the lack of atmosphere‐ocean coupling limit the reliability of numerical simulations. Here we investigate the Medicanes' response to global warming using a recently developed 25‐km global coupled climate model, which features a realistic representation of Medicanes in present climate conditions. It is found that despite a decrease in frequency, Medicanes potentially become more hazardous in the late century, lasting longer and producing stronger winds and rainfall. These changes are associated with a more robust hurricane‐like structure and are mainly confined to autumn. Thus, continued anthropogenic warming will increase the risks associated with Medicanes even in an intermediate scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP4.5), with potential natural and socioeconomic consequences.
Publication Date: 18-Jan-2019
Citation: González‐Alemán, Juan J., Salvatore Pascale, Jesús Gutierrez‐Fernandez, Hiroyuki Murakami, Miguel A. Gaertner, and Gabriel A. Vecchi. "Potential increase in hazard from Mediterranean hurricane activity with global warming." Geophysical Research Letters 46, no. 3 (2019): 1754-1764. doi:10.1029/2018GL081253.
DOI: doi:10.1029/2018GL081253
ISSN: 0094-8276
EISSN: 1944-8007
Pages: 1754 - 1764
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Version: Final published version. Article is made available in OAR by the publisher's permission or policy.

Items in OAR@Princeton are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.