Skip to main content

Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Author(s): Baker, Rachel E; Yang, Wenchang; Vecchi, Gabriel A; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Grenfell, Bryan T

To refer to this page use:
Abstract: Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of nonpharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction through susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.
Publication Date: 17-Jul-2020
Citation: Baker, Rachel E., Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, and Bryan T. Grenfell. "Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic." Science 369, no. 6501 (2020): 315-319. doi:10.1126/science.abc2535.
DOI: doi:10.1126/science.abc2535
ISSN: 0036-8075
EISSN: 1095-9203
Pages: 315 - 319
Language: eng
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Science
Version: Author's manuscript

Items in OAR@Princeton are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.