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Statistical Mechanics of the US Supreme Court

Author(s): Lee, Edward D; Broedersz, Chase P; Bialek, William

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dc.contributor.authorLee, Edward D-
dc.contributor.authorBroedersz, Chase P-
dc.contributor.authorBialek, William-
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-04T20:16:33Z-
dc.date.available2017-04-04T20:16:33Z-
dc.date.issued2015-07en_US
dc.identifier.citationLee, Edward D, Broedersz, Chase P, Bialek, William. (2015). Statistical Mechanics of the US Supreme Court. JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PHYSICS, 160 (275 - 301. doi:10.1007/s10955-015-1253-6en_US
dc.identifier.issn0022-4715-
dc.identifier.urihttp://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/pr16c88-
dc.description.abstractWe build simple models for the distribution of voting patterns in a group, using the Supreme Court of the United States as an example. The maximum entropy model consistent with the observed pairwise correlations among justices’ votes, an Ising spin glass, agrees quantitatively with the data. While all correlations (perhaps surprisingly) are positive, the effective pairwise interactions in the spin glass model have both signs, recovering the intuition that ideologically opposite justices negatively influence each another. Despite the competing interactions, a strong tendency toward unanimity emerges from the model, organizing the voting patterns in a relatively simple “energy landscape.” Besides unanimity, other energy minima in this landscape, or maxima in probability, correspond to prototypical voting states, such as the ideological split or a tightly correlated, conservative core. The model correctly predicts the correlation of justices with the majority and gives us a measure of their influence on the majority decision. These results suggest that simple models, grounded in statistical physics, can capture essential features of collective decision making quantitatively, even in a complex political context.en_US
dc.format.extent275 - 301en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PHYSICSen_US
dc.rightsAuthor's manuscripten_US
dc.titleStatistical Mechanics of the US Supreme Courten_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.identifier.doidoi:10.1007/s10955-015-1253-6-
dc.date.eissued2015-04-10en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1572-9613-
pu.type.symplectichttp://www.symplectic.co.uk/publications/atom-terms/1.0/journal-articleen_US

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