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Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates

Author(s): Bhatia, Kieran T; Vecchi, Gabriel A; Knutson, Thomas R; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Kossin, James; et al

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Abstract: Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.
Publication Date: 7-Feb-2019
Citation: Bhatia, Kieran T., Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas R. Knutson, Hiroyuki Murakami, James Kossin, Keith W. Dixon, and Carolyn E. Whitlock. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates." Nature Communications 10 (2019). doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z.
DOI: doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z
EISSN: 2041-1723
Language: eng
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Nature Communications
Version: Final published version. This is an open access article.

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