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The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Influenza

Author(s): Bansal, Shweta; Pourbohloul, Babak; Hupert, Nathaniel; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

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dc.contributor.authorBansal, Shweta-
dc.contributor.authorPourbohloul, Babak-
dc.contributor.authorHupert, Nathaniel-
dc.contributor.authorGrenfell, Bryan T.-
dc.contributor.authorMeyers, Lauren Ancel-
dc.identifier.citationBansal, Shweta, Pourbohloul, Babak, Hupert, Nathaniel, Grenfell, Bryan, Meyers, Lauren Ancel. (2009). The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Influenza. PLoS Currents, 1 (RRN1047 - RRN1047). doi:10.1371/currents.RRN1047en_US
dc.description.abstractBackground: As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates. Methods & Findings: Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way. Conclusions: Our results provide a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and a prediction that this bias will shift in coming months. These results also have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources including vaccine distribution policies.en_US
dc.format.extentRRN1047 - RRN1047en_US
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS Currents Influenzaen_US
dc.rightsFinal published version. This is an open access article.en_US
dc.titleThe Shifting Demographic Landscape of Influenzaen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US

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