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|Abstract:||Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.|
|Electronic Publication Date:||16-Jul-2009|
|Citation:||Pitzer, V.E., Viboud, C., Simonsen, L., Steiner, C., Panozzo, C.A., Alonso, W.J., Miller, M.A., Glass, R.I., Glasser, J.W., Parashar, U.D., Grenfell, B.T. (2009). Demographic Variability, Vaccination, and the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rotavirus Epidemics. Science, 325 (5938), 290 - 294. doi:10.1126/science.1172330|
|Pages:||290 - 294|
|Type of Material:||Journal Article|
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