Within-host dynamics of infection: from ecological insights to evolutionary predictions

Abstract

The last 20 years have seen a gradual change in emphasis in infectious disease management, driven by two contrasting trends. On the one hand, global initiatives within the UN Millenium Development Goals have had a major impact on the burden of disease around the world [1]. On the other hand, a number of emerging infections have been striking unexpectedly, occasionally reaching pandemic status, but have so far resisted any attempt to predict the nature, timing and magnitude of outbreaks [2]. This has led to a reappraisal of methods for the surveillance, prevention and control of infectious diseases, characterized by contributions from a broader spectrum of disciplines than ever before, with important roles not only for clinicians and public health policymakers but also anthropologists, ecologists and mathematical modellers [3].