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Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

Author(s): Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Tebaldi, Claudia

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dc.contributor.authorBuchanan, Maya K.-
dc.contributor.authorKopp, Robert E.-
dc.contributor.authorOppenheimer, Michael-
dc.contributor.authorTebaldi, Claudia-
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-16T22:29:37Z-
dc.date.available2019-12-16T22:29:37Z-
dc.date.issued2016-08en_US
dc.identifier.citationBuchanan, Maya K., Kopp, Robert E., Oppenheimer, Michael, Tebaldi, Claudia. (2016). Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise. Climatic Change, 137 (3-4), 347 - 362. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7en_US
dc.identifier.issn0165-0009-
dc.identifier.urihttp://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/pr15r2m-
dc.description.abstractEstimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections. We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions of local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. We illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.en_US
dc.format.extent347 - 362en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.relation.ispartofClimatic Changeen_US
dc.rightsFinal published version. This is an open access article.en_US
dc.titleAllowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level riseen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.identifier.doidoi:10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7-
dc.date.eissued2016-06-03en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1573-1480-
pu.type.symplectichttp://www.symplectic.co.uk/publications/atom-terms/1.0/journal-articleen_US

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