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Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales

Author(s): Bushuk, Mitchell; Msadek, Rym; Winton, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel A; Gudgel, Rich; et al

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Abstract: Recent Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction efforts and forecast skill assessments have primarily focused on pan‐Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). In this work, we move toward stakeholder‐relevant spatial scales, investigating the regional forecast skill of Arctic sea ice in a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) seasonal prediction system. Using a suite of retrospective initialized forecasts spanning 1981–2015 made with a coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice‐land model, we show that predictions of detrended regional SIE are skillful at lead times up to 11 months. Regional prediction skill is highly region and target month dependent and generically exceeds the skill of an anomaly persistence forecast. We show for the first time that initializing the ocean subsurface in a seasonal prediction system can yield significant regional skill for winter SIE. Similarly, as suggested by previous work, we find that sea ice thickness initial conditions provide a crucial source of skill for regional summer SIE.
Publication Date: 27-Apr-2017
Citation: Bushuk, Mitchell, Rym Msadek, Michael Winton, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Rich Gudgel, Anthony Rosati, and Xiaosong Yang. "Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales." Geophysical Research Letters 44, no. 10 (2017): 4953-4964. doi:10.1002/2017GL073155.
DOI: doi:10.1002/2017GL073155
ISSN: 0094-8276
EISSN: 1944-8007
Pages: 4953 - 4964
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Version: Final published version. Article is made available in OAR by the publisher's permission or policy.

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