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Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination

Author(s): Takahashi, Saki; Liao, Qiaohong; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Xing, Weijia; Sun, Junling; et al

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Abstract: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus.
Publication Date: 16-Feb-2016
Electronic Publication Date: 16-Feb-2016
Citation: Takahashi, Saki, Liao, Qiaohong, Van Boeckel, Thomas P., Xing, Weijia, Sun, Junling, Hsiao, Victor Y., Metcalf, C. Jessica E., Chang, Zhaorui, Liu, Fengfeng, Zhang, Jing, Wu, Joseph T., Cowling, Benjamin J., Leung, Gabriel M., Farrar, Jeremy J., van Doorn, H. Rogier, Grenfell, Bryan T., Yu, Hongjie. (2016). Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination. PLOS Medicine, 13 (2), e1001958 - e1001958. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001958
DOI: doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001958
EISSN: 1549-1676
Pages: e1001958 - e1001958
Type of Material: Journal Article
Journal/Proceeding Title: PLOS Medicine
Version: Final published version. This is an open access article.



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